Creating a vision and plan for science with and for the community
Society is facing significant environmental challenges, including increasingly impactful severe weather and climate change. There is an urgent need for more research in Earth system prediction and predictability to produce the trustworthy and actionable information that communities, governments, and organizations need to become more resilient. Addressing that need requires the entire Earth science community to collaborate to design the tools, resources, and support needed to solve this problem together.
NSF NCAR has deep expertise in observing and modeling across the Earth system and is uniquely positioned to partner with the community and rise to this challenge. We want to better understand and predict phenomena in the short term (including tornadoes, flash floods, and space weather), long term (including sea level rise, droughts, and chemistry-climate interactions), and everything in between. The goal is to improve fundamental understanding about Earth science systems and their interactions across the entire continuum.
NSF NCAR’s Earth System Predictability Across Timescales (ESPAT) initiative invites scientists, engineers, and leaders across multiple disciplines to co-create an aspirational but attainable plan to bring new, actionable science and capabilities to decision makers around the world. This includes identifying the gaps and opportunities that exist in our current tools and capabilities and creating a roadmap to bridge those gaps, for instance:
- Developing new modeling capabilities.
- Better integrating observations and models.
- Identifying new artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques for use in conjunction with existing tools or as stand-alone resources.
- Co-creating science and ensuring the data is available to research, educational, and other communities.
- Developing partnerships with academic, government, and private sector organizations.
This roadmap will inform our new Strategic Plan, which NSF NCAR will be developing throughout 2024.
Achieving Earth system prediction across time scales will require us to tap our collective expertise and determine what new tools, resources, and support we need to bridge the gaps in our existing capabilities. Multiple community and federal science reports highlight the need for a research infrastructure that enhances prediction capabilities across time and space – from minutes to centuries and from hyperlocal to global. These include the “Next Generation Earth System Science at the National Science Foundation” consensus study report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and the “Earth System Predictability Research and Development Strategic Framework Roadmap” report from the White House National Science and Technology Council.
Join the ESPAT online community
We’ve created a community forum on the UCAR Commons platform to foster collaborations, post events, and share relevant work.
To join the ESPAT community, complete this form and be sure to request to join the Earth System Predictability Across Timescales sub-community at the bottom of the form. The sub-community is available to anyone who wants to participate and is not limited to University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) members.
Questions?
Contact predictability@ucar.edu.